Friday, October 27, 2006

Monks Press Conference

Just back from a bizarre Monks press conference.

He stated that he was committed to defeating Nifong, and for him at this stage, "The primary concern is electability."

But it's hard to conclude that is so.

Sunday, I spoke to Cliff Brandt, a Monks advisor, to ask him if the campaign planned to do any polling; Brandt told me no. But today Monks released a poll showing him with 22% of the vote (as opposed to 2% in the N&O poll). Monks didn't distribute copies of the poll; I asked for one and he promised to send it to me.

The poll seems to make little sense: while the Cheek and undecided voters tally the same amount as in the N&O poll, Nifong is around 10% lower and Monks around 20% higher. The only way to get these figures is hard to believe: in effect, according to the Monks poll, there has been a considerable shift in black support (Nifong's base and the majority of his overall support) from Nifong to Monks.

The only problem? In the N&O poll, Monks registered 0% support from blacks. In his poll (he didn't provide demographic or racial breakdowns), he would seem to be getting between 30 and 40 percent of the black vote.

Monks then offered his "analysis" of an average of his poll and that of the N&O, but the analysis seemed little more then wishful thinking. He added that the campaign was planning a media buy, but refused to reveal the amount or to say what he specifically planned to do. And he repeated his call for the Cheek forces to endorse him.

Since I attended, I figured I'd raise a question, and asked Monks if he could cite an instance of another successful candidate, anywhere in the country, in a county-wide, state, or federal election, at any point in the last 25 years, who was polling at 2% in a major media poll three weeks before election day. Monks replied that he hadn't done any research into the matter. (I have: to my knowledge, there aren't any.)

It seems to me that if Monks' primary goal is ensuring Nifong's removal, the past performance of candidates polling at such a low level at this stage of the race should be enough to persuade him to withdraw. Given that Nifong's base is a solid 45%, it's very hard to see how Nifong can be defeated as long as Monks stays in the race. So, at this point, Monks' primary concern seems to be ensuring Nifong's reelection.

14 comments:

Anonymous said...

So, Cheek and Undecided stay the same on Monks poll, Fong goes down 10 points and Monks goes up 20...Who were the 10% that got to vote twice?

Fong 36%
Cheek 28%
Undecided 24%
Monks 22%
Total 110%

No wonder he wouldn't show the poll.

Anonymous said...

What is with this guy? Durham seems to be like a different planet. NO Republican anywhere in the nation is going to be able to obtain a large percentage of black voters. He seems to be living in a "wonderland" of his own and determined to elect Nifong.
Not only is he a Republican, in a very Democratic county - frankly, when I have heard him speak, he is simply not impressive. By the way, I am a Republican, but always vote for the individual candidate, not the party. In this case, I can't imagine not voting for Cheek.

Anonymous said...

Steve Monks is a sad, pathetic little man with a Texas-sized ego. The only thing more pathetic is his negative effect on what could be a very close election.

Anonymous said...

Yes, Durham does seem like a different planet. Is he trying to convince people he jumped 20% in the poll?
Where did those 20 % come from if undecided stay the same?

Anonymous said...

Nifong and Monks have some things in common.
Neither can admit they made a mistake and change direction.
Both manufacture information to justify staying the course.

Anonymous said...

Monks -- A politician with a napoleon complex. Jeesh! He's sees this as his "moment" and all he has is ego. Who does he think is going to believe these fake polling numbers? Um, don't we already have one confirmed pander-er?

He would make more points with Republicans of Durham for any future aspirations he may have, if he were to drop out and solidify the recall Nifong folk, and somehow he thinks he is doing the right thing?

How do these people become lawyers???? There is no evidence of logical thinking coming out of Monk's mouth. He could not even get enough signatures to get on the ballot!

quinn said...

Who did the polling? What organization? How many calls? What was the distribution by demographic?

Any poll worth paying for and, in particular, any poll that shows a 20 point jump should be supported if it is to be reported.

Expose the scam polling data and expose Monks for what he is.

Anonymous said...

Why can't Monks drop out for the election so Nifong can get the boot and then the Govenor appoints Monks. I seriously don't think anyone else would want the job of DA in Durham right now to clean up Nifong's mess. The Governor should meet with Monks and assure him he would be one of his choices. This way also the Govenor will be able to slither out of this problem of Nifong in office without to much political fall out. And he would look like a good guy by appointing someone who wants the job.

Anonymous said...

Governor - Democrat

Monks - Republican

Not likely that Easley is going to appoint a Republican IMHO

Anonymous said...

I think there is about as much chance of Easley appointing Monks as there is a chance of Monks getting elected-a snowball's chance in hell, IMO.

Anonymous said...

There is no doubt in my mind that Monks is working on behalf of Nifong in exchange for future benefits with respect to court appointments and favors.

There is no other logical explanation other than extreme stupidity or mental illness. Monks has no message that he is trying to advance as in the case of typical spoiler candidates such as Nader, for example.

madder than a hornet said...

Ross Perot gave us Bill Clinton. Steve Monks gives us Fungus. Thanks so much. NOT

Anonymous said...

Maybe Cousin Jakki can find the non-existent Duke alum who nevered offered Crystal the $2 million to go away and pay off Monk

Anonymous said...

Monks "poll" was conducted by John L. Barker Strategies of Union County. The yellow pages shows no listing for this company. The Secretary of State has no record of this business as a corporation or as an individual DBA. The Better Business Bureau and the Chamber of Commerce also have no record. Union County shows no business liscense for this company. John Barker is the former head of the Union County Republican party. Mr. Barker was once arrested for threatening Governor Easley. He is also a retired metal manufacturing teacher. I can find no record of him ever having conducted a political poll prior to this one. he claims the poll was conducted between 10/17 and 10/19 but doesn't know who made the calls or who was called other than people who voted in the past 4 general elections. He claims that the company John L. Barker Strategies is a subsidiary of Harvard University's Center of Humanities.

http://www.news14charlotte.com/content/local_news/?ArID=75488&SecID=2