Sunday, February 04, 2007

Sunday News

With the legislative session in full swing, here’s hoping that at least a few legislators read the Wilmington Star. Looking back on the case, the paper from Mike Nifong’s hometown detected an inexcusable condition: that even with the State Bar filing ethics charges against Nifong, “nobody could take the case away from him. State law says only a DA can ask for a special prosecutor.”

Nifong, of course, eventually bowed to the inevitable and asked off the case—which, the Star correctly argued, “has made North Carolina an object of international dismay.”

Nifong’s misconduct, however, leaves a question: whether legislators “will give the AG (or possibly the Chief Justice?) authority to take over cases that district attorneys cannot be trusted to handle. They could call it ‘Mike's Law.’” No move, the Star concluded, “could be more important than starting to restore North Carolinians' trust in the fairness, competence and honesty of criminal prosecutions.”

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WRAL reports that Governor Easley could be called as a witness in the State Bar's proceedings against Nifong. Why? Former prosecutor Dan Boyce explained that Easley's statements could confirm a financial motive for Nifong's misconduct.

The pension for a D.A., Boyce noted, is much higher than the pension Nifong otherwise would have received as a longtime assistant. If, in fact, maximizing his pension was one of Nifong's motives for ignoring his ethical obligations, the Bar would be justified in imposing a harsher penalty on the disgraced district attorney.

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In this week’s version of the “only in Durham” file: yesterday’s H-S reported that the city recently changed business software. In most cities, this would be a routine move, hardly the subject of front-page news.

Not in Durham. As part of the process, officials in City Manager Patrick Baker’s office double-checked their books. The result? The city has around $6.2 million in funds that the City Manager’s office thought had already been expended. The H-S didn’t report how long these millions of dollars had, in essence, been lost.

The story continued that the City Council is busily deciding how to spend this unexpected windfall. One unsolicited recommendation: keep some in reserve. It doesn’t take a clairvoyant to figure out that the city is going to be on the losing end of some civil suits over the next few years.

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It wouldn't have been unreasonable to expect that the outcome of the Duke case at least would have provided a deterrent to potbangers at other colleges and universities on campus: as the Duke rush-to-judgment crowd has been discredited (even as they refuse to admit they did anything wrong), activists at other campuses surely would want to avoid the same fate, and work harder not to rush to judgment themselves.

Events at Guilford College belie that expectation. On January 20, a fight occurred between some football players at the college and three Palestinian students. The police and the Guilford administration both conducted investigations, but even before the facts were in, the campus equivalent of the potbangers sprung into action: candlelight vigils proclaiming “tolerance,” students coming up to football players who weren’t even in town the day of the fight denouncing them.

Meanwhile, Guilford’s director of Multicultural Education, S├Ękinah Hamlin, penned a letter less than 24 hours after the fight announcing that the Palestinian students were “defending themselves against students (and possibly perspective [sic] students).” “The incident, she concluded, “was a hate crime.” Therefore, “we must be united as people of color more than ever. What happened to these three young men could have happened to any one of us. That is the reality of racism and no institution, including Guilford, in this country is free of it.”

Yesterday, the Greensboro police announced they wouldn’t pursue charges against any of the players. Charges filed by a magistrate remain, but at the very least, this affair hardly seems like the clear-cut racially provoked attack that Hamlin and her allies were describing.

John Hood, president of the John Locke Foundation, also noticed the connection. In the Duke affair, he observed, “there was undisputedly a rush to judgment on the sexual-assault allegations—a rush to judgment that has seriously damaged the credibility of prominent news outlets, columnists, commentators, and legal ‘experts.’ Perhaps the most-damaged institution is Duke itself. A large segment of the faculty didn’t just jump the gun. They turned their ideological blunderbusses on the supposed link between the supposed crime and a host of social ills, caring little who or what took collateral damage.”

And now, “activists at Guilford, Chapel Hill, and other campuses are demanding immediate action. The professional meta-meaning mavens are swooping in, ascribing all sorts of significance to events that may or may not have happened.” As Hood concludes, “The facts will emerge. Burning candles and hoisting banners won’t change them or speed their collection.”

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Along these lines, Thomas Sowell, one of the first commentators to publicly express skepticism about the Duke case, penned another thoughtful column on the matter last week. As the case collapses, Sowell detects an important lesson: “However reprehensible District Attorney Mike Nifong’s words and deeds have been, it is a mistake to see in this tawdry episode just the vileness of one man.”

People who should have known better—the media, certain quarters of the Duke faclty, civil rights groups—instead rushed to judgment. To Sowell, “the haste and vehemence with which scores of Duke professors publicly took sides against the students in this case is but one sign of the depth of moral dry rot in even our prestigious institutions.”

Sowell hopes that the unraveling of Nifong’s case will “be a wake-up call, both for blacks and liberals, on how easy it is for their emotions to be manipulated by a third-rate demagogue with a flimsy fraud. The time is long overdue for those who consider themselves ‘thinking people’ to start thinking.”

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James Ammons, chancellor of North Carolina Central, announced last week that he’ll be leaving the post to take a comparable job at Florida A&M, his alma mater. This affair was a no-win situation for Ammons: with students like Chan Hall appearing to reflect mainstream campus opinion, the complainant describing herself as an NCCU student—even if no one on the campus seems to have ever seen her—and Nifong using the campus as a political springboard in both the primary and general elections, Ammons could hardly comment on the procedural fraud.

Ammons deserves credit for avoiding any inflammatory statements. At the very least, he didn’t make a bad situation worse—which, by the standards we’ve seen in Durham, is a pretty good performance.

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Susan Estrich is one of the few victims’ rights advocates whose credibility wasn’t tarnished by the lacrosse case. In her initial comments on the case, she sided with the accuser—but she very quickly reversed course, first faulting Nifong for his procedural misconduct, then labeling the accuser a “liar.” She did so, she said, for two reasons: a respect for procedure; and a concern for future, legitimate, victims.

Estrich turned to the latter theme in a column last week, lamenting, “Those of us who have been fighting for dignity for the victims of sexual assault understand that we are facing a backlash in this country. We will pay the price for Mike Nifong’s mishandling of the Duke lacrosse case, and we know it.”

Estrich continues “The Duke case accuser it now seems clear, lied about being sexually penetrated by the three students who should never have been charged with rape – and would not have been, had prosecutor Mike Nifong followed the applicable rules in his own office. But that doesn’t mean all rape victims are suspect, or give police or courts the authority to treat them that way.”

Estrich argues that “the message that needs to be sent to victims, particularly with all the publicity that has attended the Duke case, is that they will be treated with respect if they call the police and their complaints will be addressed seriously.”

Unfortunately, with NOW effectively siding with Nifong and victims’ rights groups posting “talking points” from Wendy Murphy on their websites, it seems like the people who most need to listen to Estrich are her fellow victims’ rights advocates.

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Add the Wilson Times to the list of North Carolina newspapers that have criticized Nifong’s handling of the case. Will the Herald-Sun ever come around? Don’t bet on it—though it’s remarkable that the paper has remained utterly silent on the question of whether a DA who the state bar has accused of breaking three laws should step aside until his ethics charges are resolved.

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Yesterday's post listed some of the heroes of the affair, but missed one obvious person: Kevin Cassese. In the weeks after the restoration of the lacrosse program, he helped keep the team together, with good morale and solid recruitingall while preparing for the Lacrosse World Games for Team USA, playing for Major League Lacrosse, running camps of his own, buying a home, and planning a wedding.

He stood by the team, as the assistant and then the interim head coach, and when he was appointed to the interim position affirmed his belief in the characters of the players he was coachingat a time when few were willing to speak up publicly.

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The Amanda Marcotte affair has attracted notice in political circles, generating a lengthy writeup in Beltway Blogroll from National Journal. Indeed, Beltway Blogger Danny Glover terms the episode "the first blog scandal of the 2008 campaign."

"Marcotte's attempts to airbrush her past," Glover observed, "are fast becoming a black-eye for Edwards, even as he earned raves yesterday for a speech at the Democratic National Committee winter meeting in Washington . . . As often is the case in politics (and blogging) -- and as a prominent blogger like Marcotte should have known -- the cover-up is worse than the crime. And it doesn't help that Marcotte has been both dismissive and defiant in response to her critics."

Intriguingly, Glover also noted that Marcotte seems to have a habit of airbrushing items from her blog--in this case an announcement from former Pandagon blogger Jesse Taylor about his joining the campaign of now-Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland.

Writing at Overlawyered, Walter Olson summarized the issue succinctly:
John Edwards's life in the law and experience with the justice system is his major resume item dating back beyond the past few years, as well as the major reason this site has given his career extensive coverage. Moreover, the Duke case, which looks ever more like the Scottsboro Boys case of our era, has been convulsing his own state of North Carolina for month after month. Edwards' dodging of the case—his apparently successful stifling of any urge to speak out at the plight of the falsely accused—might on its own stand as merely cowardly. Marcotte's hiring, on the other hand, throws an even less attractive light on it, rather as if, in the Scottsboro Boys days, an on-the-sidelines Southern senator took on as a major spokesperson someone who'd been yelling the Boys' guilt from the rooftops in the most crudely prejudicial language.
As far as I can tell, the Edwards campaign has made no comment on either Marcotte's writings or on her tendency to airbrush controversial opinions from the record.

107 comments:

Michael said...

They could call it ‘Mike's Law.’”

Nifong could single-handedly cause a drop in the number of babies named Michael in the next few years. Unfortunately the pace of people using the term Nifong seems to be growing at a pretty fast clip.

Anonymous said...

The Guilford College football players deserve every presumption of innocence until a thorough investigation, as far as I'm concerned. But I also believe, compared to Duke, the incident still won't cause as much of a potbanging lynch mob since some of the accused are black.

don t. said...

Soooo .. the Wilmington Star, in a monumental understatement, says that the case " has made North Carolina an object of international dismay." International DISMAY????? Try ridicule, disgrace or any number of other more appropriate derogatory adjectives. Man, we folk down here in Louisiana are loving it.

Trinity60

Michael said...

I think that KC is being extra careful but M.Simon's page has more stuff on the Guilford case though it isn't fleshed out as carefully as the stuff usually posted by KC.

The scuttlebut is that one of the Palestinians put a jewish kid in the hospital in a previous semester. And that the Palestinians started the current affair with one of them striking Six with a belt several times before he fought back. If you've seen how big and strong Six is, you can imagine how he could level someone. After that, a bunch of team members came out and beat the crap out of them but they apparently tried to play the victim game.

Maybe M.Simon will post a link later on.

Very nice post overall (it took me a while to get through the whole thing). It's a slow political weekend so maybe the Amanda story will get more traction. I didn't see anything about it on DailyKos.

Anonymous said...

Can someone explain the difference in the magistrate's action and the Greensboro police dropping the case? This seems contradictory. And won't at least one North Carolina newspaper do some actual reporting on the Guilford case? Did one of the Palestinian students beat up a Jewish student?

Anonymous said...

JLS says...

Thanks for the round up Professor Johnson. You made a couple of points that I did not know or had not thought of:

1. You are very right that the NCCU President did not make things worse unlike Brodhead. And he was in a tougher situation than Brodhead.

2. I am glad to see some of the NC press understand they need judicial reform.

Still I think Mike's law is not enough. I firmly believe that until the scheduling power is removed from DAs, judges in NC will not be independent. The lack of a judiciary independent of the state is a fundamental problem, that I wish the federal courts would look at.

M. Simon said...

12:22AM,

But I also believe, compared to Duke, the incident still won't cause as much of a potbanging lynch mob since some of the accused are black.

You don't get it. Palestinians are blacker than black.

Anonymous said...

POLANSKI SAID

By not going on the record vis-a-vis the introduction of an innovative, moral, felony sex-crime statute for false accusers, is Professor Johnson a false-accuser enabler?

You know, one of those guys.

M. Simon said...

12:40AM,

As I understand it citizens can swear out a warrant before a magistrate. The police are not invilved.

Since it is not a police generated warrant the police have done no investigation except to see if there are any uncharged crimes.

Here is my latest on Guilford College. Click on the "Guilford College" label at the bottom for all the articles in the seeries.

Also try the label "Magistrate" on the sidebar.

M. Simon said...

POLANSKI,

I think he is just trying to get your goat.

It appears to be working.

Joe Bingham said...

KC,

Would you mind adding Freda Black to the cast of characters? I'm not familiar with her role.

Thanks,

JAB

Michael said...

Myspace post from the supposed Jewish guy that was beaten by Faris and Osama

This was posted last September and seems to fit why one of them was suspended the previous semester.

Anonymous said...

The Guilford College incident has been discredited - including pictures showing the Palis not bruised, beaten up and battered. i.e. Travis's description of Precious. The story that they had previously beaten up a Jewish man, who left the College looks to be true. This is the thanks the school gets for recuting Palis.

Jim said...

Here's video of the Palestian students in the Guilford case leaving their lawyer's office, less than a week after being "beaten by up to 15 football players, who used fists, feet and brass knuckles" causing "a broken nose, broken jaw, sustained concussions, serious contusions and nerve damage".

First, the mother of one of the accused players speaks, then the video of the Palestinian students is shown. These guys don't even look like they cut themselves shaving.

Got to love the smirk on the lawyer's face.

Anonymous said...

By the way, have Bryan Proffitt, Sam Hummel, and the rest of Ubuntu (who claim to be so against the abuse of women and that's why they potbanged at Duke), arranged any marches for last week's Durham rape? Huh..? I wonder why not..?

Jim said...

Guilford video, take two

Anonymous said...

NOT POLANSKI

Now that it has been proven that Professor Johnson is a stealth Precious-enabler, I heartily endorse Polanski's taking Johnson's "hero of the hoax" spot in line. His "goddamn, lyin' ho" statute makes him my No. 1 hero. I wish him plenty of gratuitous fornications.

God bless Polanski. KC, is there any chance you can get me his autograph?

38DDD

I'm in the Durham jail right now. I'm innocent.

Anonymous said...

Thank Jim, the video says it all.

Anonymous said...

Joe - Freda has no role in the hoax. Do a web search for her bio.

Ummm... said...

How did you start this blog four months before you joined Blogger?

Anonymous said...

Another bit of news...the auction for the Duke/UNC bball tickets raised $7,600.00 for the Association for Truth and Fairness (ATAF). Well done Devil 38, enjoy the game.

"We have a very special auction to announce: four tickets for the UNC game (2/7), all together. The tickets are section 15, row h, seats 6,8,10, 12. These are near center court..."

Anonymous said...

Some good news! The Gang of 88's ghastly chill on tolerance, free speech, and the foundation of this country appear to have stopped global warming. Or is that coming from the President's office?

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/uschill.gif

Anonymous said...

Another map for those in the humanities that have difficulty with numbers and/or are Rainbow/PUSH members.

http://www.wunderground.com/US/Region/US/2xWindChill.html

gs said...

The loophole that
' only a DA can ask to have the AG take the case" needs to be closed.

But I think the law should be called "Nifong's Law" not Mike's.

After all Nifong wanted to make himself a house hold name.

gs said...

Wronged and Nifonged

gs said...

Sorry bad link, correction

Wromged and Nifong

M. Simon said...

Here is how the Magistrate Courts work in NC.

This is different from the regular police/courts system where police investigate a crime. Citizens can swear out criminal warrants before a magistrate without a police investigation.

Magistrates handle the probable cause aspects of obtaining a warrant.

M. Simon said...

<a href=""></a>

Is how you make permalinks:

<a href="url">text to display</a>

5:09AM link

5:17AM link

Anonymous said...

"Nifong could single-handedly cause a drop in the number of babies named Michael in the next few years. Unfortunately the pace of people using the term Nifong seems to be growing at a pretty fast clip."

Meanwhile over in Durham, you can bet they will be naming a street after him. The only question is whether it will be called Nifong Court or Nifong Circle.

Calaboga

Anonymous said...

12:32 - are you suggesting that Palestinians might instigate violence? I am shocked, shocked! They have no history of being narrow minded bigots, of spewing racial hatred, of killing innocents. Oh, that's right they do - strap on the belt bomb, we're goin' shoppin'!

M. Simon said...

Michael,

Actually I'm very careful about what I post.

Rumor is clearly labeled as such.

So far the rumors I have posted are holding up well as facts come out.

I just put something up on North Carolina Magistrates. Click on the Guilford College label at the bottom of the post for all the articles in the series.

BTW I have a link to the "Jewish kid's" blog post. It is almost incoherent. But you can tease out the facts with effort.

You can find the link at the bottom of Sources Say Palestinians Did It

BTW the Palis looked unscratched.

Anonymous said...

I think most of these middle eastern students should be sent packing.

They will never change. 30 years ago a Kuwaiti in my dorm at then Carnegie Tech came at me with a knife when he heard I was Jewish. A couple of football types grabbed him and defused the situation.

Made me want to join (haha) team but only position available for Jews was Owner.

Howard said...

I'm waiting for you to stop writing outstanding pieces. I'll wait a while longer. Today is outstanding as usual, meanwhile a couple of observations:

1. Sowell bemoans the fact that Blacks were manipulated: Nifong’s case will “be a wake-up call, both for blacks and liberals, on how easy it is for their emotions to be manipulated by a third-rate demagogue with a flimsy fraud. I would only observe that the most prejudiced groups in America are Blacks in general and Women's Study students and faculty. They are NOT manipulated from outside agitators, they SEEK a situation to bolster their own biases and will stop at nothing; a false felony conviction, termination of a dissenting university president, or pot banging riots.

Next, I have chosen this time of the year to pretend to be a good citizen, so I went to Edward's site to "look around." My only observation is that Edwards has hermetically sealed himself off from anyone who might question him, support him, or comment. He is in a coccoon of his own making and God only knows what will emerge. Every possibility from Godzilla of North Carolina, to Andy Warhol of Durham may emerge once his metamorphosis is completed, probably around convention time.

Kilgore said...

KC - I don't think Estrich gets a pass just yet. What would a mature person do if they had printed national media articles where they had rushed to judgment of the accused? My guess is that a mature individual would publically apologize to those who were pre-judged and to the audience at large, and would offer some sort of explanation about why they had made such a mistake in the first place. Blaming Nifong is not a reasonable explanation. Perhaps she has done the above and I am missing it. To me she seems like someone who simply swims with the current and gets high grades in cunning and stealth and low grades for maturity.

Anonymous said...

"We are the people who run this country. We are the deciders. And every single day, every single one of us needs to step outside and take some action to help stop this ... Raise hell. Think of something to make the ridiculous look ridiculous. ...Hit the streets ...If you can, go to the ... march ...We need people in the streets, banging pots and pans and demanding, "Stop it, now!"

Does that look familiar? It's pulled from Molly Ivins last article, related to the Bush Iraq plan. While I don't particularly care for Molly Ivans, she at least, had a sense of humor, which is woefully absent from the Gang of 88 and leftists in general.

Rest in Peace Ms. Ivins.

Anonymous said...

Any chance of a "filing false charges" charge against the Palis?

Anonymous said...

Mad Mike has made it to the Federal Circuit Court level. In a dissent to decision upholding a money laundering conviction, Judge Smith accuses the prosecution of grossly overreaching, in a manner that "Mike Nifong most surely would approve."

U.S. v. Cuellar, 05-10065 (5th Cir., Feb. 2, 2007)

M. Simon said...

9:37AM,

From what I understand of NC law they are very weak when it comes to going after false charges.

Wot a surprise, eh?

Anonymous said...

Is anyone planning to live blog the Mom's Walk this morning?

GPrestonian said...

9:43am Anon:

"Mad Mike has made it to the Federal Circuit Court level."

Fifth Circuit - 05-10065 2/2/2007 USA vs. Cuellar (pdf, page 31)

LOL, referencing a Rabinowitz article.

raubrey@sbcglobal.net said...

IMO, it isn't Precious and Nifong who are making things tough for future rape victims.
Sorry, Ms. Estrich.
What's making it tough for future rape victims are the people who insist, against all evidence, that the crime occurred, because women don't lie, or something, and the people who insist that it doesn't matter that no crime occurred, that larger matters demand action, meaning the jailing of the laxers.

One case of false reporting and, best case, incompetent DA is not a big deal outside of the immediate circle of the falsely accused. The demonstration that a huge portion of the chattering classes, media, Angry Studies, self-seeking "leaders", and reflexively unthinking students don't really care fof facts and celebrate even obviously false claims is what poisons this for future rape victims.

M. Simon said...

I have a bit up on Crime Reporrting

It is about how universities and colleges report crime.

It may be a partial explanation for some of the screw ups in the Duke case.

Conflicting jurisdictions.

Anonymous said...

Estrich: "But that doesn’t mean all rape victims are suspect, or give police or courts the authority to treat them that way.”

Actually, the law has always meant that "victims" should be treated with some degree of skepticism, lest they turn out not to be actual victims - especially in rape cases. Isn't this inherent in the notion of innocent until proven guilty regarding an accused, and isn't the fact that so many ignored this basic legal precept in the Duke case the foundation of the problem?

Sorry, but so-called victim advocates by their nature tend to assume the accused guilty until proven innocent, because whatever victim [group] they advocate for is assumed innocent and trustworthy. They don't delay their assumptions until after an investigation and trial. Most times, probably, they are proven correct in those assumptions. But that isn't good enough. It doesn't justify the contrary assumptions as standard behavior. I think there is much too much confusion and conflict between automatic sympathy for a "victim" and fair proceedings, and recanting a position doesn't excuse always taking that position before the facts are in..

M. Simon said...

From Google:

Your search - "North Carolina" "prosecution of false accusations" - did not match any documents.

========

"prosecution of false accusations"

got 3 hits

prosecution "false accusations" got 131,000 hits. Here is an excerpt from a typical one.

Craig Silverman, a former Colorado prosecutor known for his zealous prosecution of rapists during his 16-year career, says that false rape accusations occur with "scary frequency." As a regular commentator on the Bryant trial for Denver's ABC affiliate, Silverman noted that "any honest veteran sex assault investigator will tell you that rape is one of the most falsely reported crimes." According to Silverman, a Denver sex-assault unit commander estimates that nearly half of all reported rape claims are false.

No mention of prosecuting false accusers.

M. Simon said...

A case of false rape prosecuted.

From 4 Dec 2005

STANDARD OF PROOF....The Oregonian has a story today about a young woman who reported last year that she had been raped by her boyfriend and two other men. However, because of disputes over the facts, prosecutors decided not to charge the men, an action that even the victim's lawyer says he understands. If you don't think you can convince a jury beyond a reasonable doubt, then you don't go to trial.

But what happened next he doesn't understand: instead of just dropping the case, prosecutors turned around and charged the victim with filing a false statement. On Friday a judge found her guilty. She faces a maximum sentence of 30 days in jail and a $1,250 fine.

Anonymous said...

I'm having a hard time figuring out what made Marcotte attractive to Edwards and/or his people. The quality of her writing on the Edwards campaign blog is worse than terrible. My 7th grader knows more about syntax, subject/verb agreement, idiom, the perils of hyperbole and just general "flow" than she does. A few examples of her middle school-esque prose, all from one short piece (about Molly Ivins):

I've learned quite a bit about what it takes to balance the good heart it takes to be a liberal and the good sense of humor it takes to be a liberal in Texas

I was much grieved to hear

I'm sure she'd want us to look at her resolve until the end of our life

waste time despairing over this fact

her wittiness is unceasing

Amanda's blog post

Maggie

Anonymous said...

I agree that Estrich does not get a pass either. A note- The FBI stats are that 49% of rape accusations are false. Women who are either earl,late and continuing enablers of the Hoax claim they were assualted - we have only their word and in light of the FBI stats, who knows if this is true? They want to excuse their actions by claiming rape.

M. Simon said...

10:47AM Maggie,

I have a tendency to write like that.

The cure is to pay careful attention. Re-read your piece assuming you know nothing about the subject.

Practicing discipline after a while makes it a habit.

Anonymous said...

Is the NCCU President glad to leave Durham and NCCU is the dust? He did not disgrace himself and deserves kudos for not inflaming the issue like so many others. Good luck in the future.

Anonymous said...

10:05 AM
"Is anyone planning to live blog the Mom's Walk this morning?"

WALK UPDATE: Crystal's infamous panties proceeding well under their own power in the 2 mile event... more to follow.

Vivian Thomas said...

Edwards' acceptance of Marcotte' behavior and attitude is a defacto endorsement of bigotry, male-hate and ignorance. Congratulation Mr. Edwards.

TombZ said...

Maggie 10:47 am -
"I've learned quite a bit about what it takes to balance the good heart it takes to be a liberal ... "

So liberals are the only ones with good hearts? Umm, OK. That's nice of you.

I guess that makes you the best, then.

M. Simon said...

11:09AM,

Up wind, or down wind?

james conrad said...

IMO, john edwards is not a serious candidate for the dem nomination so it matters little who blogs for him. he was exposed as an empty box of hair in 2004 election with virtually no chance of being re-elected senator in his home state of north carolina. the recent construction of his 28,000 square ft mansion mansion in raleigh complete with a room titled "johns lounge" ( to contemplate his 2 americas theme no doubt) is far more damaging politically than which fruit cake he hires to blog for him

Anonymous said...

11:17 Is that why left the Senate? No hope of re-election?

james conrad said...

11.35 correcto mundo......GW carried north carolina by 12 points

M. Simon said...

Man have I been busy with Guilford this morning.

Duke Fever

It looks like Angry Studies are alive and well at Guilford College. They have gotten Duke Fever (a desire to persecute the innocent in the name of some cause).

Anonymous said...

12:58 AM wrote:

"You don't get it. Palestinians are blacker than black.

Spot on. To the radical leftists,. Palestinians are perfect victims, hence perfect people. The more vile their actions, the more their oppression is supposedly demonstrated.

Great op-ed by David Brooks about Duke students in today's NYT. He taught there last fall, and he understands their thinking. A sizable majority are pragmatic centrists. I just wish they were more passionate in their moderation!

Anti-Leftist Liberal

Anonymous said...

The FBI stats are that 49% of rape accusations are false.
---------------------------

This is a blatant lie. The FBI statistics say no such thing.

TheManTheMyth said...

Does anyone have any links to evidence re the percentage of rape accusations that turn out to be false? I read somewhere that law enforcement ultimately conclude that as many as 70% of rape accusations turn out to be false or at least impossible to substantiate. I've also read a figure more like around 25%. And anonymous, you're really getting tiresome. Why don't you go outside and play for awhile. We're already about as impressed as we're going to get by your towering intellect and insightful commentary. Absurd, yet flaccid....

Anonymous said...

For a laugh - read Cash. The "something" is $240.00,which may or may not be missing. We really all need to pay the Five million in lawyers fee for the entertainment value alone. I am increasing my donation. By the way, Amanda now claims her scrubbing of her articles is a
"software mishap." Ms Lincoln,"Where are you?" And she was a nice woman. Gotta love it - Thanks Edwards for contributing to the hoax.

Cedarford said...

Estrich turned to the latter theme in a column last week, lamenting, “Those of us who have been fighting for dignity for the victims of sexual assault understand that we are facing a backlash in this country. We will pay the price for Mike Nifong’s mishandling of the Duke lacrosse case, and we know it.”

I would call it a minimal, partial redemption for Estrich. Until she is willing to take on aspects of victim rights advocacy that are at odds with constitutional rights and due process, she is in the same boat as theocrats who love Holy Parchment of the Constitution except for the pesky 1st, 2nd, 8th, and 14th Amendments.

As KC notes, blame for feminists falsely crying rape again and again cannot be laid all on NIfong, or Kobe's lawyers, or Innocence Project mixing up DNA since "woman never lie"...if Estrich wishes to be credible:

Unfortunately, with NOW effectively siding with Nifong and victims’ rights groups posting “talking points” (National Sexual Violence Resource Center - paid for by US taxpayers) from Wendy Murphy on their websites, it seems like the people who most need to listen to Estrich are her fellow victims’ rights advocates.

Estrich has refused to denounce the likes of Wendy Murphy and Nancy Grace in her essays, perhaps because she clerked for SCOTUS while Grace and Murphy were late in life lawyer converts who never clerked for anyone. But Estrich also gives the organizations a pass and still accepts that "the overwhelming majority of rape charges are true, false accusations extraordinarily rare" - which is a pile of feminist bullshit.
Estrich would really perk my attention up if she came out and didn't defy feminist orthodoxy but said, since false accusations are so rare - I support making the few that do happen felonies, and any woman (or gay) that is found to have made false allegations shall repay all costs AND be listed for lifeime in the sexual offender Registry.

That would F'ing kill feminists - that any false accuser would have their face and address in any State's "known sex offenders" public database.
********************
Anonymous 10:59

A note- The FBI stats are that 49% of rape accusations are false.

Sorry, you are acting like a feminist yourself with disregard for the truth. You just pulled that stat out of your ass. The FBI anf DOJ do not have a formal stat or study about false accusations. There is much talk about beginning a national database to track false accusations for rape, domestic abuse, false hate crime accusations. But none is available now.

Lets leave the lies to the feminists and victim's advocates, please.

Anonymous said...

So many participants in this pathetic fiasco, so many shades of culpability...

Nifong and crew's efforts - criminal.

Easley's rationale for appointing Nifong - totally unacceptable.

Brodhead's lame hindsight is 20/20 defense - unacceptable and duplicitous. He thought he could guess the future. He guessed wrong.

The G88's ad, and pathetic "reinterpretation" of their ad - maddening, ugly, outrageous and, hopefully, actionable.

The various excuses, distortions, fabrications and recently the deafening silence of many of the others (individuals, groups and media) who rushed to judgment - somewhere between preposterous and revolting.

M. Simon said...

Here is a list of studies and stats.

Not well linked but enough key words to get your search engines humming.

It looks like a reasonable number for false rape accusations is probably in the 25 to 50% range. With possible extremes of 12% and 70%.

Anonymous said...

All we are missing to turn this blog into a total conservative hatefest is to bring in some bashing of the arabs. You've got blacks, academics, women, rape victims and Democrats well covered.

Most blacks are racist, most academics are hateful liberals and most 'rape victim's are liars.

I will say one last time, these agendas are no better than Mike Nifong.

The things I read on this blog are enough to make me wonder if maybe America really is still full of racists and women haters who want to punish women for having sex.

Anonymous said...

To Cedarford 12:52
Good thinking.
Good points.
False rape accusers must pay. A felony conviction and having to register as sex offenders is reasonable. No, perfect. This rings true. Thank you.
MTU'76

Anonymous said...

1:08 PM
"All we are missing to turn this blog into a total conservative hatefest is to bring in some bashing of the arabs. You've got blacks, academics, women, rape victims and Democrats well covered."

Good afternoon Dr. Holloway, I'm glad you decided to come out of your shell.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Cedarford: Lets leave the lies to the feminists and victim's advocates, please.
12:42

Anonymous said...

Anti-Leftist Liberal,12:10 PM "...and he understands their thinking. A sizable majority are pragmatic centrists."

I reviewed the Spring 2007 WOMENST schedule of courses at Duke and find nothing pragmatic or centrist.

http://www.siss.duke.edu/schedule/1190/WOMENST

Here's the course synopsis for 161:

"Marxism and feminism in the United States have had a long history of interaction and collaboration. Many of the strongest traditions of feminist activism have found their roots in Marxist and Socialist thought; conversely, feminism has provided a critique of many of the gender biases and exclusions exhibited by materialist thought. This course will examine the changing nature of these relationships over the last thirty years. In tracing the history of Marxism and feminism, we will be able to understand precisely how each system enhanced the other.

The first part of the course will investigate the debate that dominated the 1970's and 80's between "dual systems" socialist-feminist thought that understood sexism and class as two discrete systems. We will then investigate dissatisfactions with those formulations, and look at various ways that feminists unified the two systems into a gender struggle located within a Marxist framework. The next section of the course will examine post-Althusserian formulations of Marxism, and feminist appropriations of these new developments. If the base and superstructure are interdependent and even collapsed into one another, what would feminist politics look like? We will be especially interested here in the role that globalization discourse has in these new "post-Marxist" theories."

I do not think this is the exception. At $46,000+ per year, the Department, School, and Professors should be charged with theft.

GPrestonian said...

12:42pm JLS:

"Still I think Mike's law is not enough. I firmly believe that until the scheduling power is removed from DAs, judges in NC will not be independent."

I agree, JLS. I guess you saw some of maggief's research on the subject on FR?:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/1778521/posts?page=111#111

"DURHAM -- Five years after Durham District Attorney Jim Hardin and Chief Superior Court Judge Orlando Hudson teamed up to reduce a huge backlog of cases, the district's other three Superior Court judges say the two are bypassing them and funneling the county's major criminal cases to Hudson.
Defense lawyers call it judge-shopping, and they say Hardin is doing it to punish judges who have ruled against the prosecution."

Anonymous said...

Can civil suits be filed even as Cooper, the attorney general, refuses to end this hoax case? Shouldn't the lawsuits begin? This is all-out legal warfare. Isn't it past time to go on the offensive?

M. Simon said...

1:08 PM,

You got better data? I'd like to see it.

BTW this blog was mostly "right" before the left came on board recently. Uh, you guys are a little late to the party. Individual liberties not your specialty?

I don't know how facts can be racist, enlighten me.

Now I'm glad we have more leftys here. Keeps it honest. Lots of points of view are good.

Just keep the intelectual tone up. Counter argument with argument. Fact with fact. Save the ad homs for the Netscape blog.

You got better data? Show me.

Anonymous said...

1:08,

Stop with the blog-bashing.

Anonymous said...

I've posted the data at least three times. I'm tired of posting it and being told that this data is't relevant.

The FBI says 8% of reported rape cases are unfounded. Unfounded includes 'false' reports that were both lies and mistakes. So it is false to say that all 8% were based on lying accusers. This is not what the data tells you and it is not the definition of unfounded. But you don't like the 8% figure so you ignore it, it's too low.

The Kanin study is 20 years old and consisted of 109 rape cases. It is the ONLY study that ever found such a high rate of false compliants, yet it is cited as definitive when the author himself said it should not be extrapolated to other populations.

The UK study, from TWO YEARS AGO that I posted found 3-4% of rape complaints were LIES and 6% were false, e.g did not happen. This study consisted of almost 3000 rape complaints, but it's "PUSSIFIED" and so it doesn't count. The same study found that police and the public had a belief in a much higher false rape rate than the facts supported.

I posted the recent surveys from the military academies and the surveys of college women and the rates of rape and attempted rape. They also 'don't count' though I am not sure why.

But some blogger or some police officer somewhere says 'half of rape complaints are false' and it MUST BE TRUE.

The people who specialize in dealing with rape cases, rape investigations and helping rape victims are ALL discounted, they are also pussified feminazis. The idea that maybe the people who work with victims might know more than a bunch of armchair bloggers doesn't enter your mind.

You want it to be true that false rape is an epidemic so you attack not only any data that disprove your theory but anyone.

Honestly, reading this blog it is no wonder that Wendy Murphy refuses to admit the Duke case is a hoax. All it takes is one single false rape complaint and people come out of the woodwork.

Today, now the rape of false rape complaints is at 70%. Who knew women were so evil.

It is insulting to read that anyone believes huge numbers of women lie about rape all because they are ashamed of having consensual sex or they want to get back at the guy for a one night stand. It is insulting to read that victims of probably the most disgusting and vile crime short of torture are to be disbelieved automatically and treated with skepticism automatically, since the defendant is presumed innocent.

Anonymous said...

Anon 1:45 PM
"I've posted the data at least three times. I'm tired of posting it and being told that this data is't relevant."

Posting this "data" repeatedly serves little purpose, if at all. Any good scientist that really understands the "data" also understands the underlying methods, biases, error and limitations. Merely repeating what you have copied or read off of the Internet is difficult to defend or accept. A more rigorous treatment on so serious a subject would be greatly welcomed. Unfortunately, such "data" might be as difficult to ascertain as the percentage of agendists who pursue Real Selfless Truth over their own agendas.

"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.
- Leonard H. Courtney, attributed to Benjamin Disraeli by Mark Twain

[copied off of the Internet]

Anonymous said...

In other words any "data" that shows a low incidence of false rape complaints is suspect, but "data" that shows a high rate of false rape reports is less biased.

Last I looked neither the FBI, The Department of Justice or the British Government were dominated by radical feminist agenda drivers who believe women never lie about rape. Indeed, it appears that the Brits and increasingly the DOJ and FBI are trying harder to do a better job of categorizing rape.

Anonymous said...

Top notch investigative reporter Cash Michaels has done it again! Today's news ....strong sources close to the case The Carolinian/Wilmington Journal have spoken with, allege.....

Please don't tell Cash I found a couple of $20s in my purse today.

THE ALLEGED ROBBERY NO ONE TALKS ABOUT

MTU'76

Anonymous said...

2:18 PM

Sorry, you are incorrect. It cuts both ways. I think you are reading a bias into the comment. Science at it's heart is the removal of all bias. There are not that many truly good scientists, I'm afraid.

Anonymous said...


Honestly, reading this blog it is no wonder that Wendy Murphy refuses to admit the Duke case is a hoax. All it takes is one single false rape complaint and people come out of the woodwork.

Today, now the rape of false rape complaints is at 70%. Who knew women were so evil.

It is insulting to read that anyone believes huge numbers of women lie about rape all because they are ashamed of having consensual sex or they want to get back at the guy for a one night stand. It is insulting to read that victims of probably the most disgusting and vile crime short of torture are to be disbelieved automatically and treated with skepticism automatically, since the defendant is presumed innocent.


If one thing is clear from postings like this and those decrying false rape claims it is this:

[some] women have an enormous fear of rape and seem to need to make everyone believe that its prevalence in society is shockingly high.

[some] men have an enormous fear of false rape claims and seem to need to make everyone believe that its prevalence in society is shockingly high.

The Duke case, of course, feeds into those men's, perhaps, irrational fear. Maybe it was Tawana Brawley that feeds into women's fears ...

What is clear from the DoJ NCVS is that women today are much more likely to get a sexually transmitted disease than they are to get raped or sexually assaulted.

Anonymous said...

I can't really follow what Cash is trying to say.

They gave the strippers money, they wanted it back, then they wanted the strippers to leave so they gave them $100 extra, then the stripper left and one said her money was stolen.

She accused Kim Pittman of stealing her money but Cash thinks it might have been the Lacrosse players and that the WALL OF SILENCE was about misdemeanor robbery???

Is he trying to send a signal to the AG that the black comunity is okay with no rape charges if they charge Ryan with stealing the woman's money?

Does he think Nifong overlooked real evidence of theft but found fake evidence of rape?

Anonymous said...

In the interests of fair play, I bring you excerpts from an article on Digging at Duke that was referred to on Durham Responds:


They revealed many details that, to this day, have never been publicly reported or, at the most, mentioned in passing. For example, here’s something you probably haven’t heard: In addition to working as an exotic dancer, the 28-year-old woman had held a variety of other jobs while putting herself through college and raising two small children (she now has a third). She had sold cars at a local dealership, worked in an automobile assembly plant, and lifted and bathed elderly patients in a nursing home. She had to give up the latter after injuring her back on the job. She knew how to drive a forklift too, said her father with obvious pride.

...

To be a responsible journalist is a noble thing. We are entrusted with the responsibility of listening—really listening—to ordinary people, and doing our best to honor their experiences. I wish more of us had done this work with the young woman who remains silent. If only they had made the effort to look more closely. The blurred image that emerged for me was both lovely and tragic. It was the face, simply, of a human being.
(Emphasis added.)

Anonymous said...

To 2:43
Does Cash think?
MTU'76

Kilgore said...

anon 1:45 said

The UK study, from TWO YEARS AGO that I posted found 3-4% of rape complaints were LIES and 6% were false, e.g did not happen. This study consisted of almost 3000 rape complaints, but it's "PUSSIFIED" and


Can you please post a link to this study and also cite the journal that published it? What I have read usually concludes false rape accusations are between 15-50%. I would be curious to see this study to see how it compares. Thanks.

Anonymous said...

POLANSKI says

11:09 instead of Crystal's panties, allow me to suggest the more flavorful, alliterative, and ungrammatical "Precious panties"--that has an aroma all its own

Cedarford offers "A Pile of Feminist Shit," which is surely a great title for something...title of Susan Estrich's next book? C is also correct about the FBI not having stats on false accusations. IMO, that is a stat that will never be nailed down; only approximations will be possible.

No one on this blog has addressed my suggestion for a felony sex-crime statute for false accusers. I find this odd, given its controversial nature.

Speaking of false accusations, I think it would make a great reality-TV show. The logo could be a talking Precious panties: "Arrest those honkies, Sergeant"--something like that

Simon, great links. Could you post the Charles Murray article again? It relates to something I'd like to comment on.

1:24--you're so correct: Angry Studies is stealing money from alumni and Duke parents and students. I dubbed it "academic welfare"

Anonymous said...


Simon, great links. Could you post the Charles Murray article again? It relates to something I'd like to comment on.


Google and ye shall find. Or, better yet, visit AEI where many of those nasty, evil, baby eating conservatives who drool over how low the IQ of peoples of color is hang out.

Anonymous said...

Hmmm, that should be: AEI.

Anonymous said...

3:00

AEI readers like to "drool" over the low IQs of peoples of color?

Is that a fact, or are you projecting?

Do you aver that IQ is a pseudoconcept, or that "intelligence" is a racist word? I'll listen avec bras ouverts.

Polanski

Anonymous said...

Two studies commissioned by the British government.

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/r159.pdf

http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/hors293.pdf

Anonymous said...

Polanski asks:


AEI readers like to "drool" over the low IQs of peoples of color?

Is that a fact, or are you projecting?

Do you aver that IQ is a pseudoconcept, or that "intelligence" is a racist word? I'll listen avec bras ouverts.


You are one fucking low IQ dude, you know that. You can't tell sarcasm when you see it.

Anonymous said...

3:27

It's true. I have an exceptionally high IQ--at least 89, and I don't like to brag. Why must you point out my high IQ to my fellow posters. I feel exposed right now.

You make a powerful argument. Thank you, brother.

Polanski

Anonymous said...

15 to 50% false rape claims. Now that is a stat with a 35% difference.

Kilgore said...

Anonymous said...
Two studies commissioned by the British government.
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs2/r159.pdf
http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/pdfs05/hors293.pdf

3:23 PM


The first "study" cited above is actually a survey. Yes, the sample was large but still a survey and not peer reviewed research. I find it interesting to ponder just how you might determine the rate of false accusations via a survey. ;>) It is interesting that the survey also only polled women. Men are victims of rape and of sexual assault and their omission is glaring. It makes one wonder if they may have a pre-existing agenda.

The second cite is even worse. Far from peer reviewed and published research this one is a "report" done by victim advocates of "database" information and case surveys. Here's the description:

This report draws on material from two evaluation projects funded by the Crime Reduction Programme Violence Against Women Initiative (CRP VAWI). It combines analysis of St Mary ’s Sexual Assault Referral Centre historic database and prospective case tracking of reported rape/sexual assault cases across six sites over 17-27 months.

The Kanin study stands out since it was a published research study rather than a survey or report done by advocates wanting to push their own agenda.

This is actually a very instructive example of the way ideologues attempt to spread their ism's. The same methods can be seen in the domestic violence advocates who only push stats based on surveys and "reports." They completely ignore the peer reviewed research which tells a profoundly different story.

I would be very interested in seeing an actual research study which supports your assumptions. Do you know of one?

Anonymous said...

re stats for false accusations

Here's a typical "false report" scenario:

Hip boyfriend wants to introduce repressed girlfriend into participating in S&M. Without asking, he penetrates her anally.

Girlfriend "thinks" about it for a while, and "concludes" that he has no respect for her; therfore, she was "raped."

It's all "Rashomon" all the time here. Perhaps she was raped, perhaps not.

Conclusion: it's impossible to collect verifiable stats re false accusations. However, in the Duke case, it can be proven that she's a lying whore. That's a verifiable stat, yet Precious is still a "victim," according to the State of North Carolina.

Polanski

Anonymous said...

It is perhaps obvious why ideologues want to point to the British surveys of 1998 and 2000. They show a rape rate of 0.4%, or about 4 in 1000 women in the stated age range.

The DoJ NCVS has a value of 0.5 per 1000 for 2005, which is almost an order of magnitude less.

The British survey is also a self completed survey, while the DoJ's NCVS is done by phone and is more representative, and includes a larger number of individuals.

The British link posted includes this:


The total number of women aged 16 to 59 who answered
the 2000 BCS sexual victimisation module was 6,944.
From this sample of women, 64 reported experiencing
some form of sexual victimisation in the last year. Of these
64 cases, 32 could be classified as rape. The prevalence
and risk analysis in this report uses the categories of rape
(32 cases) and any sexual victimisation (64 cases,
including the 32 rapes).


I think restriction of range is a problem here, but at least they tell us the actual numbers they uncovered, while with the NCVS charts you have to recompute the numbers or dig in the the 100+MB of data that they provide.

Kilgore said...

Yes RP...but it is even worse than that.

In the first survey that anon cited I forgot to mention that rape was defined for the survey as forced sex but was not limited to the penis. Fingers and objects could also be considered rape. Therefore two 15 year olds sitting in the basement of the gf's house fooling around and he sticks his finger in her vagina and she protests and whammo! That is considered rape in this survey. By watering down the definition of rape they bloat the stats to make it look more common. Even with the watered down definition this survey says that 0.4% of women experienced rape in the prior year. That's 4 out of a thousand by my count. A far cry from the 1 in 4 propaganda of the rape advocates.

Anonymous said...

Getting back to Cash Michael's column....

The thing that stood out most to me while reading it was his total failure to credit any of Mangum's revised (Dec. 2006) story. He goes with the original timeline which exonerates Seligmann and makes the case that this whole thing is about a $240 robbery. And for that he seems to blame only McFadyen.

We're making progress.

Maggie

Anonymous said...

Simon - Thanks for the studies and stats links - instant info - can't beat it. It occured to me that perhaps (I don't know this to be true) Crystal has been getting Workers Comp for her back injury from the Nursing Home.

Anonymous said...

2:42 "No such wrath as a woman scorned." Unfortunately, we are seein gwoman tortured, raped and killed much to frequently. Gals, lets get more street smart.

Anonymous said...

I just read the piece from Kristal Zook about Crystal Mangum. Another white woman who knows more about black people than anyone. Crysal (with a C) is a stripper, who sadly per Kristal (with a K) has difficulty keeping a job. Crystal(C) was in that house on that night hired to strip - thats why she is called a stripper. Thanks 2:49 for the link. Gail and Kristal (K) are still mad at Pauls Zorn for ignoring them. Please leave Mary and Travis out of this -

Anonymous said...


Unfortunately, we are seein gwoman tortured, raped and killed much to frequently. Gals, lets get more street smart.


Well, lets separate those out, eh.

Killed? Males are killed more frequently than females in these united states.

Raped? Well, yes, that happens to women much more than men. The latest NCVS say that rape occurs at around .5 per 1000 women, while murder at around .1 per 1000 people.

Torture? There don't seem to be any figures.

Anonymous said...

8:42 Just read and look at the news - describes graphically what is done to raped and murder woman. If it is your wife, sister or dayghter - one is to many. What is your point?

Anonymous said...

11:17am---John Edwards' huge mansion is in Chapel Hill, not Raleigh. He used to live in Raleigh.
It was reported that they bought about 100 acres surrounding the house. It's way off the hi-way and has a long, winding road for privacy. Guess they want to construct an estate of some kind.
Don't think that Edwards represents the poor.

M. Simon said...

Polanski,

I can't find the Charles Murray link. Could you give me a hint on the topic?

In the mean time here are a few links to chew on.

Ending Race Denial

Charles Murray on educationg our top performers and plumbers.

“The society which scorns excellence in plumbing because plumbing is a humble activity, and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because philosophy is an exalted activity, will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy. Neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water.”

- John W.. Gardner

M. Simon said...

The extremes are 8% (FBI) to 70%(I don't know the reference).

The average is 39%
The geometric mean is 24%

Most of the reliable estimates come in the 25 to 50% range.

The average is 37.5%
The geometric mean is 35%

So the most likely range is probably 25 to 40%.

Even if the FBI 8% figure holds it is still 4 times the false reporting of other crimes. It is probably 20 times more prevalent.

BTW one thing to keep in mind is that the police radio chatter tapes for the night in question was "lost, stolen, or accidentally destroyed".

The cops were probably telling unseemly jokes at CGM's expense.

Purdue sociologist Eugene J. Kanin has done two studies at least. He came up with estimates of 40% and 50% false accusations.

• Linda Fairstein, who heads the New York County District Attorney's Sex Crimes Unit. Fairstein, the author of Sexual Violence: Our War Against Rape, says, "there are about 4,000 reports of rape each year in Manhattan. Of these, about 50% simply did not happen."

M. Simon said...

7:41PM,

Mary Travis? Wasn't she with Peter, Paul, and Mary?

Anonymous said...

thanks for the links, simon

polanski

Anonymous said...


Who knew women were so evil.


This is the sort of emotive clap-trap we have come to expect from ideologues.

If the rate at which women get rapes, according to NCVS, is 5 in 10,000, then it only take another 2-3 in 10,000 to falsly report rape (alowing for only about a 50% report rate) for the false rape report rate to be around 50%.

That doesn't look like a lot of evil women to me ... about the sort of numbers I would expect, really.