Political Developments

The Cheek campaign just released poll of 300 likely voters in Durham County. The results:

• Nifong, 33%
• Cheek, 32%
• write-in, 5%
• don't know/undecided, 30%

The poll's demographic breakdown:

• 65% Democratic, 19% Republican, 16% independent.
• 58% women, 42% men.
• 62% white, 30% black.
  

This breakdown differs slightly from the N&O poll of 10 days ago, which had whites at 56% of the likely voter sample and blacks at 38%.

The politics of revenge and prosecutorial misconduct is playing well in the African-American community: the N&O poll had Nifong carrying the black vote 62%-9%; in the Cheek poll, the figure is 61%-4%.

As in the N&O poll, the Cheek poll shows Nifong polling better among women than men.

There is one enormous difference between the two polls, suggesting that the news of recent days (Nifong's admission that, despite his status as prosecutor and lead investigator for the case, he's never spoken to the accuser about her story, amidst revelations that the accuser was dancing in a most limber fashion at the time the authorities claim that she was in horrific pain from her attack) is having an effect.

In the N&O poll, Nifong led Cheek among independents, 42%-30%, with the remainder scattered or undecided. In the Cheek poll, Cheek led among independents, 42%-15%, with the remainder scattered or undecided.

The basic conclusions:

• Turnout is critical. A large vote by independents and Republicans would likely yield a Cheek win.
  
• As Cheek appears to have a realistic chance of an upset, the only rationale for a continued Monks candidacy is to ensure Nifong's re-election.
• Judging by the swing among independent voters, the momentum is in Cheek's favor, though, as the slated nominee and with the endorsement of two local PACs, Nifong retains important advantages.
  

In more good news for the Cheek campaign, Freda Black, who narrowly lost to Nifong in the primary, today urged her supporters to cast ballots for Cheek.