Friday, November 03, 2006

Political Developments

The Cheek campaign just released poll of 300 likely voters in Durham County. The results:
  • Nifong, 33%
  • Cheek, 32%
  • write-in, 5%
  • don't know/undecided, 30%
The poll's demographic breakdown:
  • 65% Democratic, 19% Republican, 16% independent.
  • 58% women, 42% men.
  • 62% white, 30% black.
This breakdown differs slightly from the N&O poll of 10 days ago, which had whites at 56% of the likely voter sample and blacks at 38%.

The politics of revenge and prosecutorial misconduct is playing well in the African-American community: the N&O poll had Nifong carrying the black vote 62%-9%; in the Cheek poll, the figure is 61%-4%.

As in the N&O poll, the Cheek poll shows Nifong polling better among women than men.

There is one enormous difference between the two polls, suggesting that the news of recent days (Nifong's admission that, despite his status as prosecutor and lead investigator for the case, he's never spoken to the accuser about her story, amidst revelations that the accuser was dancing in a most limber fashion at the time the authorities claim that she was in horrific pain from her attack) is having an effect.

In the N&O poll, Nifong led Cheek among independents, 42%-30%, with the remainder scattered or undecided. In the Cheek poll, Cheek led among independents, 42%-15%, with the remainder scattered or undecided.

The basic conclusions:
  • Turnout is critical. A large vote by independents and Republicans would likely yield a Cheek win.
  • As Cheek appears to have a realistic chance of an upset, the only rationale for a continued Monks candidacy is to ensure Nifong's re-election.
  • Judging by the swing among independent voters, the momentum is in Cheek's favor, though, as the slated nominee and with the endorsement of two local PACs, Nifong retains important advantages.
In more good news for the Cheek campaign, Freda Black, who narrowly lost to Nifong in the primary, today urged her supporters to cast ballots for Cheek.

49 comments:

Anonymous said...

I just phoned my daughter to tell her the news. Told her to remind her friends how critical it is for them all to vote next week. Each vote has the real potential to make the difference.

Anonymous said...

Vote Cheek!!!!

Anonymous said...

KC, where did you get the results of Cheek's polling? Is this something the local media have?

KC Johnson said...

It was released to the local media at the same time it was released to me.

The advantage of having a blog--I can publish immediately!

Anonymous said...

Thanks KC. Should be an interesting next few days to say the least!

Anonymous said...

I can almost feel a clean breath of fresh air blowing through Durham. The black cloud is almost gone and healing can begin. VOTE CHEEK for a fresh start.

Anonymous said...

Thank you KC...this certainly has picked up my day!!!

Anonymous said...

Who did the pole and what was the margin of error? Not that the MoE means that much with such a large % of undecideds, just curious.

Anonymous said...

Duke students need to check that their registration went through. I just called and they told me many of the registrations received on the last few days had problems (couldn't read handwriting, etc.)

Anonymous said...

Get the word out to the Duke students, double check your registration is o.k. At this point corruption on all levels is expected. Lets double check the registrations.

Anonymous said...

Professor Johnson,

Do you get any sense of what the tv/radio media coverage is like down in Durham when you were down there? Sometimes I get the sense that folks outside of Durham are more interested in the outcome of the election and trial than the locals.

I'm guessing most of us would be out protesting the DA.

Best

Anonymous said...

Cheek is not going to win. You people will have to deal with the fact that a district attorney's race is indeed up to the voters--and these would not, in large measure, be those of you who write into this blog. I am not surprised at all that you would want these voters (aka potential jurors) to cast their votes based on the one-sided, poorly argued, pitifully arrogant and panicked one-issue lacrosse bloggers. For some of us, for example, the arrest of the person allegedly responsible for the murder of 4 young men in Durham matters more in our faith in the DA's office. Of course we've not heard you one issue people speak at all about the issues in Durham that concern us everyday. Only when these privileged white boys come before the system, does your outrage emerge.
Get yourselves ready for the next version of the argument when Nifong wins the election. This is nothing more than pure panic that these alleged rapists will have to have their day in court. And from my seat, that's exactly where they belong.

Anonymous said...

This message was on FODU website yesterday. It may be useful to repeat it here again.
-----------------------------

All Duke students and parents of Duke students, I like to draw your attention to the links below. You may use the first link to make sure your Duke student is properly registered to vote in Durham, on November 7. This may save you some last minute surprises. Once you know your precinct number, you may use the second link to establish the address of your polling station and the type of ballot you will use when voting.

1. To check if you are registered to vote in Durham (and to see your precinct number): Are you registered?

2. To see your polling address and the ballot type: Where is your polling station?

Anonymous said...

this johnny-come-lately interest by Duke students in Durham is pathetic and blatantly arrogant. Where was their interest last election season? But of course there was no issue then that seemed to have an impact on their immunity from behaving in a civil and responsible ways. Civil duty only emerges for them when it becomes necessary to protect the incivility, raucous and likely illegal conduct of some on their campus. Sounds like selective citizenship to me. Would Nifong be an issue if his appropriate oversight had not leaked into Duke student conduct? I bet not.

Anonymous said...

To the above poster:
Nifong made his choice, Duke students are now making theirs...

Anonymous said...

Sure they are. And so are students at North Carolina Central, who have registered, and been registered in far greater numbers than any "oh my gosh I just remembered it is an election day" duke student. this is where a true Durham constituency lies. And guess what, they've cared about the community in far greater measure, and with more consistency, than these one issue, 'ohmygosh, how do you learn how to vote?' duke students.
So, the numbers will tell. And as I said, you people will need to move on to the next phase of your panic after Tuesday.

Anonymous said...

If they cared about their community, they would vote Cheek. They would want to get rid of the corrupt Nifong. If they vote Nifong, they are the ones who will suffer. He is pure EVIL!

Anonymous said...

evil? It is absolutely incredible what extremes of definitions you people find appropriate in this context. I wonder what language you would use to describe, say, genocide? or hunger and starvation?
If Nifong is evil, what was Hitler?

Anonymous said...

Here is an interesting development! Ok, maybe not, but it is funny.

http://www.thebrushback.com/darape_full.htm

Anonymous said...

to 5:38PM, 5:27PM, & 6:25PM - to this lifelong Durham resident and one who has never missed an election, my vote for Cheek may upset you but Nifong is a sleazy person with only one reason for this case -- to win votes. He is not interested in truth but only in his own welfare (i.e.retirement benefits). Once he has that in his hot little hand he will forget all else, and treat the other "important cases" as he has all those other alleged rape cases that he plea-bargained out of court. And when he does this to some other innocent person some of us will still care.

Anonymous said...

wow, now that's a really deep analysis worthy of some thought.
(not!) But it is characteristic of the increasingly frantic and frustrated attack and wish for something concrete (well oh my goodness, I've figured it all out--it's the retirement money!). This seems the only kind of argument you have left. Let's hear from you again on Wednesday morning.

Anonymous said...

go play the banjo mikey. you'll feel better.

Anonymous said...

to 5:27, 5:38, 6:25:
What are you, 12 years old? You sound like Pee Wee Herman: "I know you are but what am I?...." Geez!

emmy said...

To the anonymous Nifong lover...damn right the Duke students care now...sometimes, it takes an injustice to motivate people...and once the NCCU students get their man back in the DA's office, and the next railroading is one of their own, who will they cry to????!

Anonymous said...

Re: 5:27, 5:38, 6:25-- Wow, I think we've heard an excerpt from the Nutfong Monologue. It's the piece he's been working on instead of actually functioning as a District Attorney. Can't wait for the stage show, Mikey. You could call it The Old Tobacco Road; Mike Falls in With Low Companions. Sic Semper Tyrannis

Another Duke mom said...

Duke students have likely been voting in their home cities until now (I know my son has). Since out of town college students have a choice, many are exercising that choice and voting in Durham this year. When a local DA is targeting Duke students purely to garner votes, it is understandable that Dukies would get motivated.

Anonymous said...

It would be interesting to learn just what Duke contributes to the Durham community:

1. In tax revenues

2. Jobs for local residents (non-students and non-faculty/administration)

3. Commerce (which increases sales tax revenues to pay government employees like the DA and DPD)

4. Community service/charity, especially in the medical area

Once a dollar figure coule be put on that, perhaps it would be revealing to consider what Durham would be like without Duke.

Twaddlefree

Anonymous said...

Twaddlefree: I thought the number was $30 bio of economic benefit? per year!

Anonymous said...

Is there a source for that figure, please?

And, what's the amount for NCCU?

HMan said...

To all you Nifongistas: Your position seems to be that Mikey can indict and put on trial anyone he chooses (we noticed you make no referrence to facts in evidence). You think that this will show everyone who is boss in Durham and put the FEAR in uppity Dukies.
America was not formed in struggle and blood for you thugs to hijack a DAs office in an attempt to bully people and pump up your sagging self esteem.
At the end of the day, the US Constitution will prevail, even in Durham.
No wonder you guys down there were so willing to attack it in 1860 - it just keeps getting in your way, doesn't it?

Anonymous said...

I think it is ONE Nifongista, s/he just has a very big mouth.

Anonymous said...

KC,
If the vote is close with Liefong winning, can Cheek call for a run-off?

Anonymous said...

Has anyone seen the results of this poll reported anywhere else?

It was given to the local media over seven hours ago?

This is big news. Why hasn't the N & O, The Herald Sun or WRAL posted it on their websites?

Anonymous said...

10:06pm
I was wondering the same thing

Anonymous said...

Why can't we get to JinC blogs anymore? I know you and he have communicated in the past. Do you have his e-mail address or could you tell him he's not getting through since the Oct 17 post! Or maybe it's just my ISP??

dixydel@ec.rr.com

Anonymous said...

to 5:27 Do you have any idea what DNA means? Do you realize they have plenty of DNA and that there was no match? I think you need to read up on the subject so you don't sound so ignorant. EVEN Dumbfong understands DNA, that is why in the beginning he kept saying DNA will rule out the innocent. Go blog on Dumbfong's blog.

Anonymous said...

Here's an idea. Why don't you distressed Duke parents transfer your dear students to, where is it that "Professor" Johnson teaches--Brooklyn College? There your dear ones can benefit from the self-righteous indignation of this right winger and spaces will be opened at Duke for students more interested in a liberal education than right wing fanaticism. Indeed, these vulnerable little minds might even be protected from the scary scenario of any of the Duke 88. Since you all so deeply respect and revere the professor who is no longer at Williams anymore, I am certain you are people of such integrity that you will want to follow your principles and have your youngsters enroll in classes with someone whose educational achievements are a better match for your intellectual priorities. So, head thee all to Brooklyn! See ya!

Anonymous said...

11:55pm - Hmm. Is that supposed to be some sort of put-down about Brooklyn and KC? If so, you don't know what you're talking about. Many outstanding professors come from Brooklyn. My Dad did. He taught at the Graduate School of Business at the University of Michigan. Many of his colleagues came from Brooklyn too. Interestingly, they all went to Brooklyn Tech. Go figure. As for KC, his impressive knowledge is obvious to anyone who spends just a few minutes reading this blog.

I don't have kids yet but if I did it's safe to say I would much rather have them learn from KC than the Group of 88. It's not even close. So yes - I would send them to Brooklyn - in a New York minute.

Anonymous said...

The Cheek polling information is within the article about Freda Black's endorsement on the Herald-Sun website. Needless to say they did not want a headline for that, and chose to bury it!

Anonymous said...

I'm surprised that they would want to bury the poll results. They would likely spur on the black voters to get out and vote to assure Nifong wins. I'm pleased with the poll results, but it would probably be best to not have them published. Results like this are common poll tactics (i.e. propaganda) to get voters to the polls, generally democrats.

Twaddlefree

Anonymous said...

To 5:27:

The arrest of one person in last year's slaying of the four young men was Nifong's october surprise. There was no need to rush to this arrest because the guy is already in custody and there is much more investigating to do. Nifong spent thousand on the Duke case while the case you raise languished. The father of one of the murdered boys was deeply anguished about DNA testing samples sitting for months not being tested and analyzed while Nifong rushed in with the Duke DNA samples and had them back in what is apparently record time for Durham. Please, get your facts straight before you demean the lives of these young men and other targeted Duke students by diminishing the importance of this case in comparison to other important Durham cases.

Anonymous said...

To 5:38:

Since you seem to object people voting in a manner consistent with their own interests, perhaps you should practive what you preach by voting the opposite of what you want to do or by staying home.

My statement above is intended to mirror the absurdity of what you assert.

Anonymous said...

To 7:01:

I. too, disagree with the Nifong comparison to Hitler. Nifong is vastly more Stalinesque than he is Hitler-like.

Anonymous said...

To the Nifong lover:
You must be deeply concerned about your candidate's loss on Tuesday or you would not be reading this blog. You would quite confidently ignore it.

Anonymous said...

Thanks to 5:58 am for trying to get the debate between the pro-Nifong poster(s) and the anti-Nifong posters away from ad hominem attacks and back on the merits. I agree completely that anyone concerned about the murder case noted by 5:27 and the attention it has gotten from the DA's office as compared to the Duke lacrosse case (which is precious little, despite a recent and long overdue development) should be as eager to vote against Nifong as any one. It's not only the way he has handled this case but the way he has allocated the office's priorities away from other cases that should be of concern.

Anonymous said...

As a followup to the poster above, I recall reading in one of Cash Michaels' articles that he and Joe Cheshire worked together for over a year to get an innocent black teenager out of jail.
I guess Joe is too tied up now on the Duke hoax to be helping out with any more of Cash's causes.
What goes around, comes around!

Anonymous said...

KC, have you heard any fallout from the Nifong campaign over Black's endorsement? There are rumors that Nifong is treating this much like he treated the petition that put Cheek on the ballot and has made some intimidating remarks to Black? Any information on this or is it just rumor?

Anonymous said...

With friends like Cash who needs enemies?

Of course Cheshire didn't work with Cash to get any favors. But you would think Cash might remember what kind of a man Cheshire was and do the right thing and call this whole thing for what it really is.

Anonymous said...

wait, NCCU students are registered to vote in larger numbers than duke students? I guess the only possible explanation is that we're apathetic and stupid.... or that the vast majority of us are registered to vote out-of-state.

step 1: think
step 2: then write.

(honestly though, I don't really understand why an NCCU student would support nifong either, unless you subscribe to the "any publicity is good publicity" theory)